2023 Guatemalan Elections and the Victory of Movimiento Semilla: Analysis of Trends.

Working paper.

Recommended citation: The 2023 general elections in Guatemala concluded with the surprising success of Movimiento Semilla, a small social-democrat party. The party won the presidency and became the third largest force in congress despite spending close to 5 times less than their main competitor, Sandra Torre's Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE). What explains Movimiento Semilla's electoral performance? Analysis of ballot-box results suggest that two trends (one political and another one demographic) explain these results. First, the erosion of UNE's party structure across the country, as evidenced by the steady declined in the number of mayors and representatives that they have managed to elect in the previous three elections. Second, the increasing urbanization of the country’s population –still one of the most rural in Latin America— and the increasing access to internet and social media that accompanies it.